Peak phosphorus

Peak phosphorus is a concept to describe the point in time when humanity reaches the maximum global production rate of phosphorus as an industrial and commercial raw material. The term is used in an equivalent way to the better-known term peak oil.

Phosphorus is a finite (limited) resource that is widespread in the Earth's crust and in living organisms but is relatively scarce in concentrated forms, which are not evenly distributed across the Earth. The only cost-effective production method to date is the mining of phosphate rock, but only a few countries have significant reserves of it. The top four are Morocco, China, Algeria and Syria.

Means of commercial phosphorus production besides mining are few because of its non-gaseous biogeochemical cycle. The predominant source of phosphorus is phosphate rock and in the past guano. According to some researchers, Earth's commercial and affordable phosphorus reserves are expected to be depleted in 50–100 years and peak phosphorus to be reached in approximately 2030. Others suggest that supplies will last for several hundreds of years. As with the timing of peak oil (oil peak in april 2005, bitumen+gas+coal+agricultural conversion to oil is still increasing), the question is not settled, and researchers in different fields regularly publish different estimates of the rock phosphate reserves.

The peak phosphorus concept is connected with the concept of planetary boundaries. Phosphorus, as part of biogeochemical processes, belongs to one of the nine "Earth system processes" which are known to have boundaries. As long as the boundaries are not crossed, they mark the "safe zone" for the planet.

The accurate determination of peak phosphorus is dependent on knowing the total world's commercial phosphate reserves and the future demand for rock phosphate. In 2017, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that phosphorus reserves worldwide are 68 billion tons, while world mining production in 2016 was 0.261 billion tons and this has been taken to mean (assuming zero growth) that there were enough reserves to last for at least 260 years and possibly a lot longer. These reserve figures are widely used, but others suggest that there has been little external verification of the estimate. The countries with most phosphate rock commercial reserves (in billion metric tons): Morocco 50, China 3.1, Algeria 2.2, Syria 1.8, South Africa 1.5, Russia 1.3, Jordan 1.2, Egypt 1.2, Australia 1.1, United States 1.1.

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