Hurricane Paul (2006)

Hurricane Paul

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS/NWS)
Hurricane Paul at peak intensity on October 23
Formed	October 21, 2006
Dissipated	October 26, 2006
Highest winds	1-minute sustained: 105 mph (165 km/h)
Lowest pressure	970 mbar (hPa); 28.64 inHg
Fatalities	4 direct
Damage	$3.2 million (2006 USD)
Areas affected	Oaxaca, Guerrero, Baja California Sur, Sinaloa
Part of the 2006 Pacific hurricane season

Hurricane Paul was a hurricane that ultimately struck Mexico as a tropical depression in October 2006. It developed from an area of disturbed weather on October 21, and slowly intensified as it moved into an area of warm waters and progressively decreasing wind shear. Paul attained hurricane status on October 23, and later that day it reached its peak intensity of 105 mph (165 km/h), a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A strong trough turned the hurricane to the north and northeast into an area of strong vertical shear, and Paul weakened to a tropical storm on October 24. It accelerated northeastward, and after passing a short distance south of Baja California Sur the low level circulation became decoupled from the rest of the convection. Paul weakened to a tropical depression on October 25 a short distance off the coast of Mexico, and after briefly turning away from the coast it made landfall on northwestern Sinaloa on October 26.

Paul was the third hurricane to threaten western Mexico in the season, the others being Hurricanes John and Lane. Rough surf killed two people along Baja California Sur, while flooding was reported in Sinaloa. Damage totaled more than $35 million (2006 MXN, $3.2 million 2006 USD).

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on October 4. It moved westward across the Atlantic Ocean without development, and entered the eastern Pacific Ocean on October 18. The next day, it combined with a previously existing area of disturbed weather, resulting in a large area of convection extending northward into southern Mexico. The broad and disorganized system moved westward at 10–15 mph (16–24 km/h). On October 20, the system developed an area of low pressure, and began to show signs of organization. It continued to organize, and developed into Tropical Depression Seventeen-E on October 21 while located about 265 miles (425 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo. Upon forming, the depression possessed a small, tight low-level circulation beneath a well-defined mid-level circulation. Easterly wind shear initially restricted upper-level outflow as the cyclone moved to the west, a motion due to a subtropical ridge to its north.