United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004
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County Results
Kerry—60-70%
Kerry—50-60%
Kerry—<50%
Bush—<50%
Bush—50-60%
Bush—60-70%
Bush—70-80%
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The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.
Michigan was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations predicted Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state.
Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, 2004 marked the first time since 1976 in which the state was not carried by the candidate who lead in the overall popular vote.
There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.
Bush raised $4,960,010. Kerry raised $2,496,203.
In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state 10 times. Kerry visited 7 visits. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week, but Kerry spent slightly more each week.
The state has competitive suburban counties with a large Roman Catholic population. Kerry won this state with 51%. George W. Bush performed moderately well, but below potential, in the state winning a majority of the counties and congressional districts and performing moderately well, but below potential in suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb. Bush's lack of attention to economic issues important to Michigan voters may have been a reason for Kerry's win. Kerry won 70% of Wayne County, Detroit. Both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush won the state of Michigan.
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