Missouri bellwether

The Missouri bellwether is a political phenomenon that notes that the state of Missouri voted for the winner in all but one U.S. Presidential election from 1904 to 2004 (the exception is 1956). While states like Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico have been arguably stronger indicators of political trends in recent years, Missouri was a consistent swing state throughout the 20th century. Nevada has voted for the winner of every presidential election from United States presidential election, 1912 to the present, excluding United States presidential election, 1976 and United States presidential election, 2016, perhaps making it the new bellwether state. Prior to the 2008 elections, Lincoln County, Missouri was said to be the only bellwether county in a bellwether state. Missouri is also considered a bellwether of U.S. views on hot-button social issues such as stem cell research,gay rights, and school vouchers. Some economists also consider the state a bellwether for economic trends such as consumer confidence and unemployment.

From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes went to the person who became President of the United States, with one exception. In 1956 during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, when Missouri went to neighboring Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. Missouri's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the "too close to call" elections of 1948 (when Harry S. Truman was elected to his only full term as President), 1960, 1976, 2000, and 2016.

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