Analysis and Forecasting Centre

The Centre for Analysis, Planning and Strategy (Centre d’analyse, de prévision et de stratégie, or CAPS, formerly known as the Direction de la prospective or Directorate for Foresight) is a think tank within the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, tasked with making strategic recommendations to the Foreign Minister and ensuring a French presence in European and international debates and institutions. It is the French counterpart to the US State Department’s Policy Planning Staff. It is currently headed by historian Justin Vaïsse, who was appointed by Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius in March 2013.

The director of the CAPS reports directly to the Minister and is often considered a member of his cabinet. The CAPS is tasked with performing three tasks with complete independence of approach and expression:

In spite of its small size, the Centre enjoys a solid reputation and has become known the world over for being a breeding ground of intellectual and diplomatic talent. Its PIPA program (Programme d’invitation des personnalités d’avenir – an invitation program for young foreign leaders), established in 1989, which hosts about a hundred young leaders a year from some forty different countries, seeks to present the select few who are chosen with an unvarnished image of contemporary France and establish friendly ties with them.

The CAPS is made quite unique by the diversity of its team: it is made up of civil servants from different ministries, most often Defence and Finance, career diplomats and academics. Its specificity is particularly marked in the manner with which its team handles topics: indeed, its officials frequently assess situations by using data that originates out of the traditional diplomatic channels, whether in universities, think tanks or specialised services at home or abroad. It also has the resources necessary to commission expert analyses from external sources.

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