WMD conjecture in the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq

WMD conjecture in the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq concerns the failure by the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and the U.S.-led Iraq Survey Group (ISG) to locate undeclared stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction both before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The United States effectively terminated the search effort for unconventional weaponry in January 2005, and the Iraq Intelligence Commission concluded that the judgements of the U.S. intelligence community about the continued existence of weapons of mass destruction and an associated military program were wrong.

Other investigative bodies continue to examine material evidence relating to past programs. Major controversy was generated when prohibited weapons were not found. Some observers reason Saddam Hussein miscalculated by deceiving Intelligence services into believing he had retained active stockpiles while others remain convinced, contrary to the findings of the ISG, that such weapons existed and continue to exist. Alternative conspiracy theories and conjecture have been put forward to explain their possible whereabouts.

Appearing on MSNBC's Hardball in June 2004, Paul Wolfowitz insisted the weapons picture was without change, since Iraq "had a lot of time to move stuff, a lot of time to hide stuff." Three weeks later, Lord Butler of Brockwell said upon conclusion of the Butler Review, "Iraq is a very big place, there is a lot of sand. ... It is impractical to dig up the whole of Iraq, but for somebody to say 'we are absolutely certain that there is nothing there' would be a very rash and unfounded thing to say, in our judgment."

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