Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere program

The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA) was a ten-year study (1985-1994) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) aimed specifically at the prediction of climate phenomena on time scales of months to years.

TOGA emphasized the tropical oceans and their relationship to the global atmosphere. Underlying TOGA is the premise that the dynamic adjustment of the ocean in the tropics is far more rapid than at higher latitudes. Thus disturbances emanating from the western Pacific Ocean (such as El Niño) may propagate across the basin on time scales of weeks compared to years for corresponding basin-wide propagation at higher latitudes. The significance of shorter dynamic times scales near the equator is that they are similar to those of highly energetic atmospheric modes. This similarity allows the formation of coupled modes between the ocean and the atmosphere. TOGA was instrumental in developing a comprehensive observing system for the equatorial Pacific Ocean and laid important groundwork for ENSO prediction, data assimilation and understanding of air-sea interaction.

The roots of the TOGA program can be traced back to the 1920s and the work of Sir Gilbert Walker on what became known as the Southern Oscillation, an apparent linkage between atmospheric pressure anomalies throughout the Pacific Ocean that appeared to be a major driver of weather patterns. This work was furthered by Jacob Bjerknes in the 1960s when he solidified the link between the El Nino phenomena, a winter warm anomaly in the normally cool water off the coast of Peru, with the southern oscillation. The combined El Nino – Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, turned out to be a major contributor to seasonal climate variability with both human and economic implications. Study of these linked phenomena continued through the 1970s and 1980s via a variety observational and modeling studies which included the discovery of equatorial kelvin waves, a potential precursor to the ENSO phenomena.

This in mind, the World Climate Research Programme began to plan a decade long research initiative intended to understand ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical ocean basins. The goals of this program were solidified when in 1982-1983 a major El Nino event, at the time the strongest to date, struck without prior prediction or detection. This particularly strong event was punctuated by drought, flooding, extreme heat events, and severe storms. These events clearly defined a need for better predictive mechanisms for ENSO and the need for reliable real time data to support prediction.

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