Long-term effects of global warming

There are expected to be various long-term effects of global warming. Most discussion and research, including that by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, concentrates on the effects of global warming up to 2100, with only an outline of the effects beyond this.

Meltwater from melting ice sheets and glacier retreat contributes to a rise in the future sea level.

Concern has been expressed about the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). In 2002 Vaughan & Spouge argued that the "WAIS most likely will not collapse in the next few centuries." In an inaugural article for members of the National Academy of Sciences elected in 2005, Timothy Lenton and others suggest that a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet could occur within a millennium. Specifically, they state "Although the timescale is highly uncertain, a qualitative WAIS change could occur within this millennium, with collapse within 300 years being a worst-case scenario. Rapid sea-level rise (greater than 1 m per century) is more likely to come from the WAIS than from the Greenland ice sheet.". A study in 2015 found that assuming cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10/nbsp;000 gigatonnes of carbon, the Antarctic Ice Sheet could melt completely over the following millennia, contributing 58 m to global sea-level rise, and 30 m within the first 1000 years.

Greenland's ice sheet contains enough fresh water as ice to raise sea level worldwide by 7 metres (23 ft). Greenland may become warm enough by 2100 to begin an almost complete melt over more than 1,000 years.James E. Hansen suggests that inadequate attention is being given to this issue.

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