Future sea level

The rate of global mean sea-level rise (~3 mm/yr; SLR) has accelerated compared to the mean of the 20th century (~2 mm/yr), but the rate of rise is locally variable. Factors contributing to SLR include decreased global ice volume and warming of the ocean. On Greenland, the deficiency between annual ice gained and lost tripled between 1996 and 2007. On Antarctica the deficiency increased by 75%. Mountain glaciers are retreating and the cumulative mean thickness change has accelerated from about −1.8 to −4 m in 1965 to 1970 to about −12 to −14 m in the first decade of the 21st century. From 1961 to 2003, ocean temperatures to a depth of 700 m increased and portions of the deeper ocean are warming.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) projected sea level would reach 0.18 to 0.59 m above present by the end of the 21st century but lacked an estimate of ice flow dynamics calving. Calving was added by Pfeffer et al. (2008) indicating 0.8 to 2 m of SLR by 2100 (favouring the low end of this range). Rahmstorf (2007) estimated SLR will reach 0.5 to 1.4 m by the end of the century. Pielke (2008) points out that observed SLR has exceeded the best case projections thus far. These approximations and others indicate that global mean SLR may reach 1 m by the end of this century. However, sea level is highly variable and planners considering local impacts must take this variability into account.

Global mean air temperature is increasing in relation to global warming. As a result, Earth’s ice volume is decreasing and the heat content of the ocean is increasing. Global mean sea level is therefore rising, and the rate of rise has accelerated. Sea-level rise (SLR) presents challenges to coastal communities and ecosystems, and planners are engaged in assessing management options. Accordingly, it is desirable to have an estimate of SLR this century to properly design mitigation and adaptation strategies. An approximation of SLR by the end of the century will allow: 1) estimates of coastal erosion and changes in vulnerability to coastal hazards; 2) assessments of threats to coastal ecosystems; and 3) development of climate risk management policies. This paper reviews recent studies of global warming, sea-level observations, global ice volume, ocean heating, and estimates of SLR by the end of the 21st century.

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