Gateway belief model

The gateway belief model (GBM) is a theory in the communication sciences and psychology, most commonly applied in the area of science communication. The model suggests that public perception of the degree of normative (expert) agreement – or (scientific) consensus – on societal issues, such as climate change, vaccines, evolution, gun control, and GMO's functions as a so-called "gateway" cognition, influencing an individual's personal opinions, judgments, attitudes, and affective dispositions toward various social and scientific issues. The most well-known version of the model was developed by social psychologist Sander van der Linden and colleagues. The conceptual structure of the model is derived from earlier versions and a cumulative body of research.

Consensus is an example of a descriptive norm, i.e., the collective judgment of a group of individuals, such as experts. Public opinion research shows that the views of the general public often diverge sharply from experts on a number of important societal issues, especially in the United States. This is known as the "consensus gap". The main premise of the gateway belief model is that this gap can be reduced by highlighting or communicating the actual degree of social or scientific consensus on an issue. Specifically, the GBM postulates a two-step process of opinion change, where (mis)perceptions of normative agreement influence "key" personal beliefs that people hold about an issue (step 1), which in turn, shape public attitudes and support (step 2). Although the basic process of debiasing judgment can be viewed as a form of knowledge deficit, development of the gateway belief model is based on research in cognitive and social psychology, mainly drawing on theories of heuristic information-processing, social norms, decision-making, and motivated cognition.

In the face of uncertainty, people often look to others for guidance, including experts. Prior research shows that people heuristically rely on consensus cues in the absence of motivation to cognitively elaborate, because consensus typically implies correctness. Research also indicates that people prefer to rely on the combined judgment of multiple experts rather than on individual expert opinions. Relying on consensus cues is often considered socially adaptive because it harnesses the wisdom of the crowd effect.

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