Early 1980s recession in the United States

The United States entered recession in January 1980 and returned to growth six months later in July 1980. Although recovery took hold, the unemployment rate remained unchanged through the start of a second recession in July 1981. The downturn ended sixteen months later, in November 1982. The economy entered a strong recovery and experienced a lengthy expansion through 1990.

Principal causes of the 1980 recession included contractionary monetary policy undertaken by the Federal Reserve to combat double digit inflation and residual effects of the energy crisis. Manufacturing and construction failed to recover before more aggressive inflation reducing policy was adopted by the Federal Reserve in 1981, causing a second downturn. Due to their proximity and compounded effects, they are commonly referred to as the early 1980s recession, an example of a W-shaped or "double dip" recession; it remains the most recent example of such a recession in the United States.

The recession marked a shift in policy from more traditional Keynesian economics to the adoption of neoliberal economic policies. This change was primarily achieved through tax reform and stronger monetary policy on the part of the Federal Reserve, with the strong recovery and long, stable period of growth that followed increasing the popularity of both concepts in political and academic circles.

Beginning in 1978, inflation began to intensify, reaching double digit levels in 1979. The consumer price index rose considerably between 1978 and 1980. These increases were largely attributed to the oil price shocks of 1979 and 1980, although the core consumer price index which excludes energy and food also posted large increases. Productivity, real gross national product, and personal income remained essentially unchanged during this period, while inflation continued to rise, a phenomenon known as stagflation.

In order to combat rising inflation, recently appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, elected to increase the federal funds rate. Following the October 6, 1979 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the federal funds rate increased gradually from 11.5% to an eventual peak of 17.6% in April 1980. This caused an economic recession beginning in January 1980, and in March 1980, president Jimmy Carter created his own plan for credit controls and budget cuts to beat inflation. In order to cooperate with these new priorities, the federal funds rate was lowered considerably from its April peak.

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