Threat Matrix (database)

The Threat Matrix is an intelligence-based measure and thorough assessments database program that Pakistan government officials and military science circles use for evaluating perceived external and internal threats which challenge the national security of Pakistan. Development began in 2011 under the government of Prime minister Yousaf Raza Gillani. The program identifies the military's operational priorities and goes beyond in comprehensively describing both existential and non-existential threats to the country. The Threat Matrix program is viewed to become a permanent fixture of the national security policy of Pakistan.

The database's comprehensive existence was revealed by political scientist, Dr. Farrukh Saleem in his work published in The News International in 2013, though it was earlier mentioned by the ISPR in a press briefing given to media. In his published thesis, Dr. Saleem critically opined that the source of all existential threats has always been a state actor(s), not a non-state one – the armed forces.

"Sub-conventional threat is a reality and is a part of a threat matrix faced by our country. But it doesn't mean that the conventional threat has receded."

The Threat Matrix has two defined dimensions: conventional threats and sub-conventional threats. Conventional threats define external threats to national security emanating from outside the country, while sub-conventional threats refer to internal threats to national security originating from within the country. In January 2013, Major-General Asif Salim of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) briefed the news media on new recent studies conducted by Pakistan military. According to the ISPR, the armed forces were programmed for conventional warfare but the current situation necessitated change as the Forces fighting on the front-line in the tribal regions are now being program according to the requirements of sub-conventional warfare. In an interview military scientist, Talat Masood noted that before the new doctrine, India was viewed as "No. 1 enemy", but for the first time it has been realised that Pakistan faces the real threat from within – a threat which is concentrated in areas along western borders. The conflict in the northwest is closely tied with the War in Afghanistan, with factors like militant insurgency and future US pullout in Afghanistan having an intertwined effect on the conflict in Pakistan. According to Lieutenant-General Khalid Rabbani, commander of the XI Corps in Peshawar, the withdrawal of foreign combat troops from Afghanistan post-2014 may trigger some challenging ramifications for Pakistan in terms of the threat matrix of Afghanistan: "If they are leaving and giving a notion of success to the Taliban of Afghanistan, this notion of success may have a snowballing effect on to the threat matrix of Afghanistan."

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