Thomas Herndon
| Thomas Herndon | |
|---|---|
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| Born | February 25, 1985 |
| Education | Economics |
| Alma mater | The Evergreen State College |
| Known for | Exposing fundamental errors in "Growth in a Time of Debt" |
| Notable work | Academic paper: Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff |
Thomas Herndon (born February 25, 1985) is a graduate student in economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, known for critiquing "Growth in a Time of Debt", a widely cited academic paper by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff supporting the austerity policies implemented by governments in Europe and North America in the early 21st century. His research concluded these measures may not have been necessary.
Herndon proved the paper contained multiple errors, provoking widespread international interest and embarrassment for austerity policymakers. The Reinhart-Rogoff paper was frequently cited during the 2012 U.S. presidential election campaign. It was also frequently cited among policymakers in congress, including in the drafting of the Bowles-Simpson report. However, there are differing views on the actual impact the original paper may have had on policy making.
The findings have been described as "shocking" and as having rocked the economics world. Publications such as The Washington Post have for several years taken the conclusions of the Reinhart-Rogoff paper as an "economic consensus view."New York magazine wrote that Herndon "just used part of his spring semester to shake the intellectual foundation of the global austerity movement."
During his graduate studies in a class with Professor Michael Ash, Herndon was assigned to pick an economics paper and try to replicate the results. He chose "Growth in a Time of Debt", and throughout the semester his attempts to replicate the results proved unsuccessful. After further consultation with his professors Michael Ash and Robert Pollin, Herndon was encouraged to contact the authors Reinhart and Rogoff at Harvard. They provided him with the actual working spreadsheet they had used to obtain their results. Herndon looked into the detail of the original spreadsheet and found several issues:
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