Seasonal flu

Flu season is an annually recurring time period characterized by the prevalence of outbreaks of influenza (flu). The season occurs during the cold half of the year in each hemisphere. Influenza activity can sometimes be predicted and even tracked geographically. While the beginning of major flu activity in each season varies by location, in any specific location these minor epidemics usually take about 3 weeks to peak and another 3 weeks to significantly diminish immediately.

The 2012–13 flu season was particularly harsh in the United States, where the majority of states were reporting high rates of influenza-like illness. The Centers for Disease Control reported that the available flu vaccine was 60% effective. It further recommended that all persons over age 6 months get the vaccine.

Three virus families, Influenzavirus A, B, and C are the main infective agents that cause influenza. During periods of cooler temperature, influenza cases increase roughly tenfold or more. Despite higher incidence of manifestations of the flu during the season, the viruses are actually transmitted throughout populations all year round.

Each annual flu season is normally associated with a major influenzavirus subtype. The associated subtype changes each year, due to development of immunological resistance to a previous year's strain (through exposure and vaccinations), and mutational changes in previously dormant viruses strains.

The exact mechanism behind the seasonal nature of influenza outbreaks is unclear. Some proposed explanations are:

Research in guinea pigs has shown that the aerosol transmission of the virus is enhanced when the air is cold and dry. The dependence on aridity appears to be due to degradation of the virus particles in moist air, while the dependence on cold appears to be due to infected hosts shedding the virus for a longer period of time. The researchers did not find that the cold impaired the immune response of the guinea pigs to the virus.

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