Sabato's Crystal Ball
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| Type | Weekly newsletter |
|---|---|
| Format | Newsletter |
| Publisher | University of Virginia Center for Politics |
| Editor | Larry Sabato |
| Founded | 2002 |
| Political alignment | Nonpartisan |
| Headquarters | Charlottesville, Virginia, USA |
| Circulation | 12,000 |
| Website | Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball |
Sabato's Crystal Ball is a free, nonpartisan weekly online political newsletter and website in the United States that analyzes current American politics and predicts electoral outcomes for U.S House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors, and U.S. president races. A publication of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, the Crystal Ball was founded by political analyst Larry Sabato, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.
Crystal Ball predicts every race by the morning of election day, rather than only predicting the races with a clear leader and declaring the others unpredictable. This is intended to allow for a full projection of the election's most likely outcome, rather than simply a list of races to pay attention to.
The Crystal Ball was first launched in September 2002, evolving from pre-election presentations given by founder Larry J. Sabato. For the 2002 midterm elections, the Crystal Ball tracked every U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race and the top 50 U.S. House of Representatives races. In 2002, the website received 160,000 hits, averaging over 5,000 hits per day over the last three weeks of the campaign, with over 1,500 people subscribing to its weekly e-mail updates.
In the end, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 433 of the 435 U.S. House races with an average rate of 99.6%, 32 of the 34 U.S. Senate races with an average rate of 94%, and 32 of the 36 governor’s races with an average rate of 88%.
Following a post-election hiatus, the Crystal Ball re-launched on January 27, 2003 to cover the 2004 election cycle. In addition to continuing its e-mail newsletter and website analysis, the Crystal Ball sent correspondents to both the Democratic National Convention in Boston and the Republican National Convention in New York City. On Election Day, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 434 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.7%), 33 of 34 U.S. Senate races (97%), 10 of 11 governor’s races (91%), and 48 of 50 states in the presidential Electoral College (96%).
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