Rand Strategy Assessment Center

The RAND Strategy Assessment Center was first conceived in 1979 with the goal of developing “new methods for strategic analysis that combine the best features or war gaming and analytical modeling.” Work began in April 1980. The initial request for the center came from the Department of Defense while the funding was provided by the Defense Nuclear Agency. The interactive, computer supported, war-gaming system uses Red (Soviets) and Blue (United States) force models (also known as Agents). These represent the two superpowers primarily being researched. There is also a Scenario Agent, which represents non-superpower countries, and a Force Agent, which simulates the results of military operations and combat. The significance of this program was that humans were no longer needed to run these complex simulations. It was now possible for the computer to almost single-handedly run iteration after iteration. Humans could step in and change the scenario, variables, or even take over completely if they so desired, although it was not necessary. The goal was to capture the human-expert contribution and inject that knowledge into the artificial intelligence controlling the computer models.

The need for this arose during the late 1970s when current US strategic-nuclear analysis wasn’t in depth enough. The current thinking in the US at the time was heavily revolving around the idea of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). Many believed that it would be one all-or-nothing nuclear attack or retaliation that would determine the fate of the two superpowers. The idea was to expand on this thinking, more concurrent with the Soviet ideal that bringing nuclear weapons into a war, wouldn’t be the end. The U.S.S.R. had contingencies for a variety of scenarios, whereas the US really only had the one.

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