Presumptive nominee

In United States politics and government, the term presidential nominee has two different meanings:

In United States presidential elections, the presumptive nominee is a presidential candidate who is assumed to be their party's nominee, but has not yet been formally nominated or elected by their political party at the party's nominating convention. Ordinarily, a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee of their party when their "last serious challenger drops out" or when the candidate "mathematically clinches—whichever comes first. But there is still room for interpretation." A candidate mathematically clinches a nomination by securing a simple majority (i.e., more than 50 percent) of delegates through the primaries and caucuses prior to the convention. The time at which news organizations begin to refer to a candidate as the "presumptive nominee" varies from election to election. The shift in media usage from "front-runner" to "presumptive nominee" is considered a significant change for a campaign.

In the modern era, it is the norm for the major political parties' nominees to be "clear well before the conventions"; in the past, however, some conventions have begun with the outcome in doubt, requiring multiple rounds of balloting to select a nominee. The last such conventions occurred in 1952 for the Democrats and 1948 for the Republicans; in every presidential election since, one candidate in each party has already secured a majority of delegates by the time of the convention, making the result of the convention a "foregone conclusion" before it begins.

Losing candidates, after withdrawing from the primary race, often "release" their delegates, who frequently declare support for the presumptive nominee.

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