Predictive profiling

Predictive profiling is a method of threat assessment designed to predict and categorize the potential for criminal and/or terrorist methods of operation based on an observed behavior, information, a situation and/or objects.

Predictive Profiling offers a unique approach to threat mitigation that begins from the point of view of the aggressor/adversary and is based on actual adversary's methods of operation, their modus operandi. This method is applicable to securing virtually any environment and to meeting any set of security requirements.

In Predictive Profiling, one uses only the operational profile (not racial or statistical profile) of a terrorist or criminal as the basis for identifying suspicion indicators in a protected environment. When predictively profiling a situation, person or object one identifies suspicion indicators that correlate with an adversary's method of operation. For example, if a security officer observes a person walking with an empty suitcase in an airport (the suitcase appears very light; it bounces off the floor) he may identify this suspicious behavior as an indication of a possible terrorist or criminal method of operation because:

Predictive Profiling differs from racial profiling which uses race and ethnicity as the only factors against which to evaluate potential threat. In fact, proponents of Predictive Profiling would dismiss the use of racial profiling as ineffective in counter terrorism or security because focusing on one part of the population as a tool for identifying potential threat can be illegal and it can also be counterproductive.

Indeed, a terrorist or criminal can use security measures which are solely based on racial profiling against a security system by choosing an identity and appearance that is not associated with the targeted race or ethnicity. Once, on May 30, 1972, three members of the Japanese Red Army, on behalf of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), attacked an Israeli Airport (Lod Airport massacre). The Japanese attackers took advantage of the fact that at the time, the Israeli border security system was geared towards focusing on Arab and Muslim populations as potential terrorist threats.

Predicting profiling is proactive in nature, used to prevent and/or mitigate threat before it evolves into an attack or criminal event. Putting resources into emergency response is of course prudent, but clearly preventing an event from occurring is preferable both in terms of public safety and often, security costs.

Predictive Profiling uses the method of attack and its correlating Suspicion Indicators as the basis for threat assessment. The method of attack, from a pickpocket to a terrorist, remains constant and it includes the Marking to Getaway stages:

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