Peak copper

Peak copper is the point in time at which the maximum global copper production rate is reached. Since copper is a finite resource, at some point in the future new production from within the earth will diminish, and at some earlier time production will reach a maximum. When this will occur is a matter of dispute. Unlike fossil fuels, however, copper is scrapped and reused and it has been estimated that at least 80% of all copper ever mined is still available (having been repeatedly recycled). Copper is among the most important industrial metals, valued for its heat and electrical conductivities and malleability. Copper is used in electrical power cables, data cables, electrical equipment, cooling and refrigeration tubing, heat exchangers, brass casing small arms ammunition, water pipes, and jewellery.

Copper has been in use at least 10,000 years, but more than 97% of all copper ever mined and smelted has been extracted since 1900. The increased demand for copper due to the growing Indian and Chinese economies since 2006 has led to increased prices and an increase in copper theft.

Concern about the copper supply is not new. In 1924, noted geologist and copper-mining expert Ira Joralemon warned:

Total world production is about 18 million metric tons per year. Copper demand is increasing by more than 575,000 tons annually and accelerating. Based on 2006 figures for per capita consumption, Tom Graedel and colleagues at Yale University calculate that by 2100 global demand for copper will outstrip the amount extractable from the ground. China accounted for more than 22% of world copper demand in 2008, and is nearly 40% in 2014.

For some purposes, other metals can substitute, aluminium wire was substituted in many applications, but improper design caused a fire danger. The safety issues have since been solved by use of larger sizes of aluminium wire (#8AWG and up), and properly designed aluminium wiring is still being installed in place of copper. For example, the Airbus A380 uses aluminum wire in place of copper wire for electrical power transmission.

Globally, economic copper resources are being depleted with the equivalent production of three world-class copper mines being consumed annually. Environmental analyst Lester Brown suggested in 2008 that copper might run out within 25 years based on what he considered a reasonable extrapolation of 2% growth per year.

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