Livingston Survey

The Livingston Survey is a biannual survey (conducted in June and December of every year) about the economy of the United States conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The Livingston Survey was created and originally administered by columnist Joseph Livingston in 1946. He administered it biannually until his death in 1990. In 1990, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over responsibility for administering the survey.

A 1997 paper by Dean Croushure of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia described the history of the survey, argued for its usefulness in testing rational expectations hypotheses through the comparison of forecasts with reality, and explained how the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia was taking over the survey.

The forecasts made by the Livingston Survey of its variables are compared with actual values reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (in its Survey of Current Business), Federal Reserve Board, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Forecasts are made for the values of all variables six months from now and twelve months from now (i.e., coinciding in time with the next two administrations of the survey). The variables forecast are subdivided into variables reported quarterly, monthly, and daily. For variables reported quarterly, forecasts for the values two quarters from now and four quarters from now are recorded. For variables reported monthly, forecasts for the values six months from now and twelve months from now are recorded. Similarly, for variables reported daily, forecasts are recorded for the value on the last day of the month six months and twelve months from now.

In addition:

Beginning with the survey of June 1990 (and excluding December 1990) two other long-range forecast questions were included in the survey:

The main variables are as follows:

There is extensive academic research citing the Livingston Survey, including some devoted to evaluating the accuracy and bias in the forecasts. For instance, a 1983 paper by Dietrich and Joines began with the observation: "For more than a decade, researchers have been using the Livingston survey data on inflationary expectations in empirical work."

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