The history of life on Earth seems to show a clear trend; for example, it seems intuitive that there is a trend towards increasing complexity in living organisms. More recently evolved organisms, such as mammals, appear to be much more complex than organisms, such as bacteria, which have existed for a much longer period of time. However, there are theoretical and empirical problems with this claim. From a theoretical perspective, it appears that there is no reason to expect evolution to result in any largest-scale trends, although small-scale trends, limited in time and space, are expected (Gould, 1997). From an empirical perspective, it is difficult to measure complexity and, when it has been measured, the evidence does not support a largest-scale trend (McShea, 1996).
Many of the founding figures of evolution supported the idea of Evolutionary progress which has fallen from favour, but the work of Francisco J. Ayala and Michael Ruse suggests is still influential.
McShea (1998) discusses eight features of organisms that might indicate largest-scale trends in evolution entropy, energy intensiveness, evolutionary versatility, developmental depth, structural depth, adaptedness, size, complexity. He calls these "live hypotheses", meaning that trends in these features are currently being considered by evolutionary biologists. McShea observes that the most popular hypothesis, among scientists, is that there is a largest-scale trend towards increasing complexity.
Evolutionary theorists agree that there are local trends in evolution, such as increasing brain size in hominids, but these directional changes do not persist indefinitely, and trends in opposite directions also occur (Gould, 1997). Evolution causes organisms to adapt to their local environment; when the environment changes, the direction of the trend may change. The question of whether there is evolutionary progress is better formulated as the question of whether there are any largest-scale trends in evolution (McShea, 1998). That is, is there a consistent directional change throughout the history of life on Earth?