Lake Storm "Aphid"

Lake Storm Aphid

Accumulation at the Buffalo Airport and NWS office
Type	Winter storm Snowsquall
Formed	October 11, 2006
Dissipated	October 13, 2006
Lowest pressure	980 mb (28.94 inHg)
Maximum snowfall or ice accretion	24 in (61.0 cm)
Damage	530 Million USD
Areas affected	Erie County, Genesee County, Orleans County, Niagara County, Niagara Region
Part of the 2006–07 North American winter storms

The October 2006 Buffalo storm was an unusual early-season lake effect snow storm that hit the Buffalo, New York area and other surrounding areas of the United States and Canada, from the afternoon of Thursday October 12 through the morning of Friday October 13, 2006. It was called Lake Storm "Aphid" by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo in accordance with their naming scheme of lake snow effect storms for that year, which related to insects, though locals never used that terminology and have simply referred to it as the October Surprise or the October Storm.

On October 6, 2006, the first concerns of a possible lake effect snow (LES) event were raised, as medium and long range numerical weather models began to indicate conditions would be potentially favorable for lake effect precipitation, resulting in mixed snow-rain conditions. The long term forecast from the Buffalo office of the National Weather Service (NWS), as well as the Environment Canada discussion, both indicated possible LESs, but predicted that accumulations would be minimal.

By October 9, however, forecasters became concerned, given the high snow fall rates typical of snow squalls, accumulations would be possible even with temperatures above the freezing mark.

The Buffalo NWS and associated weather offices in the U.S and Canada did not issue any special advisories or make significant mention of the possibility of a major snow fall event until early afternoon on October 11. The NWS Buffalo issued a special advisory for the possibility of LES with minor accumulations of less than 2 inches (5.1 cm). Environment Canada followed suit issuing a special weather advisory for Canadian areas which would also be affected.

The warm front associated with the developing low pressure system brought rain and thunderstorms to much of western New York and southern Ontario since the early morning hours of the 11th. The quickly approaching cold front passed the Port Colborne reporting station in Ontario at 11:35 pm EST October 11 and the Buffalo Airport reporting station at 12:46 am EST October 12. With the passage of the cold front, polar continental air began to flood in behind it, and by 3:30 am EST, a lake effect squall began to form over Lake Erie in the strong westerly winds. The first lake effect rain was reported at 3:54 am EST at the Buffalo Airport.