Jumping to conclusions

Jumping to conclusions (officially the jumpingconclusionbias, often abbreviated as JTC, and also referred to as the inference-observation confusion) is a psychological term referring to a communication obstacle where one "judge[s] or decide[s] something without having all the facts; to reach unwarranted conclusions". In other words, "when I fail to distinguish between what I observed first hand from what I have only inferred or assumed". Because it involves making decisions without having enough information to be sure they are right, this can give rise to bad or rash decisions.

Three specific subtypes are as follows:

Jumping to conclusions is a form of cognitive distortion. Often, a person will make a negative assumption when it is actually not supported by any facts.

In some cases misinterpretation of what a subject has sensed, i.e., the incorrect decoding of oncoming messages, can come about due to jumping to conclusions. This can often be because the same sign can have multiple meanings. An example given in Communicating for Results: A Guide for Business and the Professions is of an employee avoiding eye contact while being questioned over a missing item – it may suggest their guilt to the crime, but it may also suggest other things such as their embarrassment at their integrity being questioned, or even a "gesture of respect for...authority". Even if the questionee shows more signs of guilt, such as sweating and avoiding answers, one is still making an assumption when they link these symptoms to the theft. These assumptions are examples of jumping to conclusions, and could have resulted in faux pas if pursued further without the evidence to back it up.

While we all jump to conclusion by making inferences and assumptions, and quite often a job requires that one acts upon them, in those cases one is making a calculated risk – they are aware they are basing their decisions on an assumption which has a degree of risk associated with it. Mistakes are much more likely when people are unaware that they have jumped to conclusions, and instead think that their assumptions are actually facts.

It is easy for interviewers to jump to conclusions, often resulting in a "costly hiring error due to false inference". Asking for clarification is a good way to help investigate inferences further.

An example of jumping to conclusions is when one makes assumptions about what someone else is going to say, often by cutting them off with the words "I know what you're going to say". Saying things like "wow, gees, and what a shame" can make one come across as more interested in looking supportive than what the other person is saying. Therefore, assuming that a story-teller wants overly-compassionate responses can have its downsides, especially if they seem non-genuine and only maintained in order to uphold some kind of social expectation.

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