Geoffrey Rose (epidemiologist)

Geoffrey Arthur Rose CBE (19 April 1926 – 12 November 1993) was an eminent epidemiologist whose ideas have been credited with transforming the approach to strategies for improving health. He was formerly the Emeritus Professor of Epidemiology at the Department of Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Geoffrey Rose was born on 19 April 1926. In 1958 he joined the epidemiology department of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine ("LSHTM")and became a 'part-time' Reader in 1964. In 1970 he became the 'Visiting Professor of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine' and was elected to Full Professor of Epidemiology in 1977. In his time at the LSHTM he worked with many pioneering epidemiologists, including Donald Reid. He was also responsible for starting the Masters in Epidemiology course. He died November 12, 1993.

Of his numerous publications, there are two that stand out in terms of their influence on the discipline of epidemiology, the seminal 1985 article "Sick Individuals and Sick Populations" and his 1992 book "The Strategy of Preventive Medicine". The impact goes beyond the field of epidemiology and into that of public health generally. One publication claimed that "A casual Social Sciences Citation Index search yielded over 700 citations of this work". As S Schwartz and AV Diez-Roux pointed out, the central lesson that has been integrated into the aforementioned fields is that "a large number of people at a small risk may give rise to more cases of disease than the small number who are at high risk". It was their assertion that this insight of Rose has profound implications for intervention and prevention strategies, and has been incorporated into research contexts through an understanding of the difference between measures of absolute and relative risk.

Rose is among the physicians and epidemiologists who best conveyed the notion that "as citizens and societies we have shared, common responsibilities in front of threats to health is central to epidemiology, public health, even to clinical medicine". He also clearly showed that a preventive measure that brings large benefits to the community may offer little to each participating person. For example, to prevent one death due to a motor vehicle accident, many hundreds of people must wear seat belts. Conversely, an intervention which brings much benefit to an individual may have a small impact in the population. These phenomena are sometimes called prevention paradoxes.

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