Generational accounting

Generational accounting measures the fiscal burdens facing today's and tomorrow's children. Laurence Kotlikoff's individual and co-authored work on the relativity of fiscal language demonstrates that conventional fiscal measures, including the government's deficit, are not well defined from the perspective of economic theory. Instead, their measurement reflects economically arbitrary fiscal labeling conventions. "Economics labeling problem," as Kotlikoff calls it, has led to gross misreadings of the fiscal positions of different countries, starting with the United States, which has a relatively small debt-to-GDP ratio, but is, arguably, in worse fiscal shape than any developed country. Kotlikoff's identification of economics labeling problem, beginning with his 1984 Deficit Delusion article in The Public Interest led him to push for generational accounting, a term he coined and that provides the title for his 1993 book, Generational Accounting.

In 1991, Kotlikoff, together with Alan Auerbach and Jagadeesh Gokhale, produced the first set of generational accounts for the United States. Their study demonstrated a major fiscal gap separating future government spending commitments and its means of paying for those commitments, portending dramatic increases in the lifetime net tax burdens facing young and future generations. The generational accounting and fiscal gap accounting developed by Auerbach, Gokhale, and Kotlikoff has become an increasingly standard means of assessing the sustainability of fiscal policy and how different countries intend to treat their next generations. Recent generational accounting by the IMF and fiscal gap accounting by Kotlikoff confirm the truly severe long-run fiscal problems facing the U.S.

Generational accounting considers how much each adult generation, on a per person basis, is likely to pay in future taxes net of transfer payments, over the rest of their lives. Aggregating these remaining lifetime net tax payments of adults and subtracting them from the fiscal gap reveals how much today's and tomorrow's children must pay to resolve the country's fiscal gap in current adults don't pay more, on net. This residual burden facing today's and tomorrow's children is allocated to them in proportion to their projected levels of lifetime labor income. I.e., if each successive generation of children is expected to experience, on average, a 1 percent high level of lifetime earners, generational accounting allocates to successive generations net lifetime tax payments that are 1 percent higher.

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