Futures techniques

Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futures studies by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting, simulation, and visioning. Some of the anticipatory methods include, the delphi method, causal layered analysis, environmental scanning, morphological analysis, and scenario planning.

The Delphi method is a very popular technique used in Futures Studies. It was developed by Gordon and Helmer in 1953 at RAND. It can be defined as a method for structuring a group communication process, so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem.

It uses the iterative, independent questioning of a panel of experts to assess the timing, probability, significance and implications of factors, trends and events in the relation to the problem being considered. Panelists are not brought together but individually questioned in rounds. After the initial round, the panelists are given lists of anonymous answers from other panelists which they can use to refine their own views.

Studies employing Delphi method tend to be difficult to perform. The application of the Delphi method requires a great deal of attention to the selection of participating experts and the questionnaires have to be scrupulously prepared and tested in advance. The initial preparation and follow-up rounds of questioning of the panelists tends to be time consuming.

Delphi's primary strength is its ability to explore, tranquilly and objectively, issues that require judgement. Unlike panel sessions, the iterative Delphi method allows the forecasting and assessment to be done without the effect of strong personalities or reputations influencing other panelists and also overcomes the difficulty of getting all experts together in a single time and place.

This method, developed by Sohail Inayatullah, is one of the newest developments in Futures Studies. Causal layered analysis focuses on "opening up" the present and past to create alternative futures rather than on developing a picture of a particular future.

It is concerned with the vertical dimension of futures studies, with the layers of analysis. CLA is based on the assumption that the way in which a problem is formulated changes the policy solutions and the actors in charge of initiating transformations.

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