Dow 36,000
| Authors | James K. Glassman, Kevin A. Hassett |
|---|---|
| Working title | Dow 36,000 |
| Country | United States |
| Genre | Investments |
| Publisher | Crown Business |
|
Publication date
|
1 October 1999 |
| Pages | 304 |
| ISBN |
Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market is a 1999 book by syndicated columnist, James K. Glassman and American Enterprise Institute scholar and former Federal Reserve economist, Kevin A. Hassett. in which they argued that stocks in 1999 were significantly undervalued and concluded that there would be a fourfold market increase with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004. The book was published in 1999, shortly before the dot-com bubble burst and the 2001 September 11 attacks, and had predicted that stocks would rise quickly to 36,000. Instead the DJIA fell dramatically.
Glassman and Hassett had predicted that the,
the single most important fact about stocks at the dawn of the twenty-first century: They are cheap....If you are worried about missing the market's big move upward, you will discover that it is not too late. Stocks are now in the midst of a one-time-only rise to much higher ground–to the neighborhood of 36,000 on the Dow Jones industrial average.
The book was published in 1999, shortly before the dot-com bubble burst, and predicted that stocks would rise quickly to 36,000. Although the DJIA reached a record high of 11,750.28 in January 2000, it fell steadily after the bursting of the dot-com bubble, and the September 11 attacks of 2001, it steadily fell, reaching a low of 7,286.27 in October 2002. Although the (DJIA) recovered to a new record high of 14,164.53 in October 2007, it crashed back to the vicinity of 6,500 by the early months of 2009, amidst a global recession.
The book was largely discredited as misstating the risk characteristics of equity securities as equivalent to U.S. Treasury fixed income securities, it is commonly believed discredited for predicting a grossly inflated stock market.
Excerpts from the book were published in The Atlantic Monthly in 1999. In the January 2000 issue of The Atlantic Monthly, Glassman and Hassett replied to a critic of their theory that "if the Dow is closer to 10,000 than to 36,000 ten years from now, we will each give $1,000 to the charity of your choice." For the Dow to be closer to 10,000 than to 36,000, it would have to be below 23,000. As things turned out, the index was not even at half that figure ten years after Glassman and Hassett's prediction (the Dow's highest close in January 2010 was 10,725, reached on 19 January). In early 2010, Glassman and Hassett conceded they lost the bet and they each donated $1,000 to the Salvation Army.
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