*** Welcome to piglix ***

Institute for the Future

Institute for the Future
Not for profit
Industry Future Forecasting
Founded 1968 in Middletown, Connecticut, United States
Founders Frank Davidson, Olaf Helmer, Paul Baran, Arnold Kramish, and Theodore Gordon
Headquarters 201 Hamilton Avenue, Palo Alto, United States
Key people
Marina Gorbis
Services Ten Year Forecast, Technology Horizons, Health Horizons
Website iftf.org

The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is a Palo Alto, California, US–based not-for-profit think tank. It was established, in 1968, as a spin-off from the RAND Corporation to help organizations plan for the long-term future, a subject known as futures studies.

First references to the idea of an Institute for the Future may be found in a 1966 Prospectus by Olaf Helmer and others. While at RAND Corporation, Helmer had already been involved with developing the Delphi method of futures studies. He, and others, wished to extend the work further with an emphasis on examining multiple scenarios. This can be seen in the prospectus summary:

The Institute opened in 1968, in Middletown, Connecticut. The initial group was led by Frank Davidson and included Olaf Helmer, Paul Baran, Arnold Kramish, and Theodore Gordon.

The Institute’s work initially relied on the forecasting methods built upon by Helmer while at RAND. The Delphi method was used to glean information from multiple anonymous sources. It was augmented by Cross Impact Analysis, which encouraged analysts to consider multiple future scenarios.

While precise and powerful, the methods that had been developed in a corporate environment were oriented to providing business and economic analyses. At a 1971 conference on mathematical modelling Helmer noted the need for similar improvements in societal modelling. Early attempts at doing so included a ‘Future State of the Union’ report, formatted according to the traditional US Presidential address to the Nation.

Despite establishing an excellent reputation for painstaking analysis of future analyses and forecasting methods, various problems meant that the Institute struggled to find its footing at first. In 1970 Helmer took over the leadership from Davidson, and the Institute shifted its Headquarters to Menlo Park, California.


...
Wikipedia

...